Notes, essays, and field reports.

Epic got stickier despite those pesky antitrust cases. And curiosity collapsed the agent layer.

Routing is the healthcare problem we should have solved first.

When your AI becomes a design partner, the design-team org chart collapses the same way the dev team's did.

Denial works because appealing is expensive. Claimable inverts that.

A eulogy for the ULCC model: it was never solvent, and the bailouts wrote the ending.

Per-token pricing isn't a billing change. It's a product-architecture verdict.

AI doesn't read your hotel brand. It reads your API.

Opus 4.7 ships with design. Your B2B moat just got reshaped.

Aviation alternative-fuels math: Boeing's Q1 2026 delivery recovery made the fuel calculus harder.

Urgent care has a competitor with no CAC.

The imaging RCTs are unimplemented. The LLMs without evidence are everywhere.

OpenAI's S-1 is the governance doc. Read it before the next contract.

UnitedHealth invested $1.5B in AI. No Canadian payer invested anything equivalent. That gap compounds.

I have always been here. Just one layer up now.

Spirit asked for a bailout. Nobody legislated 'no'.

The hospital-at-home pilot data, four years in.

The NYT failed the blind test publicly. The trust stack failed privately.

Expedia's 10-K named agentic AI. The board owns the threat now.

Airbus narrowbody backlog math, updated: Boeing's Q1 2026 delivery beat changed the calculus.

Yegge burns $100 an hour in parallel. The unit economics are still the question.

Canada tried again. The U.S. 2016 playbook now applies.

The AI content problem is not misinformation. It is that operators cannot tell what is real anymore.

I read the Claude Constitution so you don't have to. It's mostly fine.

55% / $36.6B / six IPOs. The number every health-AI deck cites is the same number that calls the top.

30% gone to AI Overviews. The OTA equity story repriced.

The next wave of foundation models will get the deployment layer wrong. The capex cycle guarantees it.

The fine-tune is dead. Long live the prompt engineer.

Most enterprises can't build a clean thesis. Expedia builds 1,500 agents a year.

Value-based care got operationalized on the third try.

Booking vs. Expedia 2025: the OTA hierarchy just had its biggest single-year shift in 15 years.

The 2025 digital health vintage looks like a real industry. The 2021 vintage wore a stethoscope.

Pick a substrate. The decade's moat is downstream.

DMA and Google AI agree on one thing. The OTA is the spread to compress.

Airbnb made AI the fourth pillar. Specialized beat general where trust was scarcest.

The 30% OTA traffic loss is now measured, not modeled. Here is the post-mortem.

What the open-weights community actually shipped in 2025.

The open-source agents will win the long tail. EU GPAI enforcement will accelerate it.

'Agents eat SaaS' is a clean thesis. Most enterprises can't build a clean thesis.

AI Overviews don't kill clicks. They kill the attribution chain that monetized the click.

Provider AI runs ahead. Payer AI lags. Their interop runs slowest.

Famous or indispensable. Travel platforms have to pick one.

Colorado AI enforcement is active. Three health-AI bills converged. The patchwork accelerated.

NYC Local Law 144 enforcement exposed a compliance gap. Most hiring-AI vendors failed the audit.

The unowned position is between the watch and the EHR.

What the safety teams got right in 2024 shows up in the Claude Constitution and the 36-AG pushback.

The OTA isn't a destination. It's a click-out tax.

The FDA hired the substacker. The substack is now policy.

Why I cancelled my GitHub Copilot in 2025.

Canada is 44 of 47. The number is the citation, not the country.

The MCP gambit, two years in: Claude Cowork is the product built on the bet.

Tool use is the only benchmark that matters after Claude 4 can code for hours unsupervised.

The IDE was always a waiting room.

I trust eval results from companies that do not sell the model being evaluated. The Texas AG settlement is why that matters.

Local models are real. Local-models-as-product mostly are not. DeepSeek is the dividing line.

Ambient scribes are the one healthcare-AI category where evidence and adoption moved together.

Urgency-led conversion is a leading indicator. The retention haircut is the trailing one.

Amazon cut 14,000 corporate roles and blamed culture. The receipts show it was the manager ratio math.

AI deployment is a data-engineering problem in a model-engineering costume.

The AI-for-prior-authorization pilots are the CMS mandate bet. Here is how to classify them.

The Seam That Ate a Decade

The GDS will outlive every startup that came to disrupt it. American Airlines paid $1.5B to prove it.

The system that caused overtourism is being asked to fix it.

The AI-generated travel itinerary product was always going to be the booking funnel. Expedia's 10-K confirmed it.

Healthcare AI adoption isn't a growth story. It's a redistribution schedule.

AI pricing creates two consumer outcomes. Regulation only sees one.

California AB 1018 is the automated-decisions safety act the hiring-AI vendors didn't see coming.

We have not seen magic yet.

Energy is the new chip. The grid is the four-year overhang.

Hotels printed margin. Airlines printed apologies.

Agent deployment crossed 50%. The skills gap is the ceiling.

Aschenbrenner cuts both ways now.

MAI-DxO is the procurement question now. Where do physicians + tools beat it?

The eval is the product. The Texas AG healthcare AI settlement is the consequence of ignoring that.

The routing layer in healthcare AI is bigger than the diagnosis layer. Six million unattached Canadians prove it.

What Medimap Was About to Become

Spirit filed Chapter 11 again. The bailout-as-life-support thesis now has two receipts.

The hotel category is broken in a way the airlines are not. Airbnb's AI fourth pillar is the divergence signal.

The Agentic Reckoning Comes for Travel

Anthropic ships every two weeks now. Your eval window just got eaten.

OpenEvidence is Nadler's second act. 1M physician questions a day.

Air Canada's attendants struck the unpaid hour. The 50-year norm broke.

Four bolts went unrecorded. The CMES record-keeping was the safety control.

MAI-DxO reset the room. Position your deck against it.

AI travel-planning crossed 50%. The OTA is the checkout now.

Illinois banned AI therapy. The prohibition names the liability every mental-health startup avoided naming.

Texas passed TRAIGA. Three states now have comprehensive AI laws. The patchwork is the policy.

IBM replaced hundreds of HR staff with AI and confirmed the back-office pattern is structural, not experimental.

Why the agent layer skipped the orchestration startups.

The AI-in-everything wave broke earlier than consensus expected. McDonald's and Klarna are the receipts.

AI in claim adjudication is the under-discussed health-AI win the prior-auth mandate is about to mainstream.

Canada just funded 10,000 AI scribes. The scribe is the wedge. The workflow layer is the business.

The essay isn't a forecast. It's a discourse-shaping instrument.

Software 3.0 is a mental model. Don't ship it as a roadmap.

California SB 53 is what SB 1047 would have become. The operator compliance posture is the same.

The travel hacker is now a vintage profession.

Amodei skipped the deployment timeline.

The "agents aren't production-ready" take aged badly. The 54% receipt.

The OTA endgame is being the agent's vendor, not the user's.

Cluely raised $5.3M for a posture. The posture became the category.

Topol named the longitudinal-data wedge.

United deployed AI to catch skiplaggers. The Texas jury said skiplagging is legal.

Duolingo cut contractors in January 2024 and called it AI. The actual AI memo came 15 months later.

Pick a calendar. Defend a budget. AI 2027 or Normal Tech.

AI for hospital staffing is the only optimization that addresses both the burnout data and the org-design problem.

The defensible asset isn't the drug, it's the dossier.

The demo video died when Google AI Overviews recommended eating rocks. Here is what replaced it.

What the year of vibes actually changed: vibe coding is a real productivity shift, not a discourse moment.

The Deel/Rippling lawsuit is the first corporate espionage case where the evidence is AI-generated data trails.

DOGE is the largest public-sector AI displacement test in history. The operator lessons are transferable.

Witty testified. The policy window opened. Nobody filed the receipt.

Google is eating the OTA's SEO floor. The defense playbook was written for a world that no longer exists.

The 'multi-agent' marketing flag appears whenever Shopify-style memos run ahead of actual deployments.

The first MHMDA private lawsuit names Amazon. The health-data-as-product model just got litigated.

The national Canadian primary care crisis is quantified. The 6 million number changes the political calculus.

Vibe coding was real. The walkback is the lesson.

LLMflation is good news for everyone except AI-health startups.

Canada's AI regulatory vacuum is not a feature. It is a liability at the investor table.

On the AGI-by-2027 claim: DeepSeek's $5M training run made the debate structural, not theatrical.

US federal AI regulation is now a four-year on/off cycle. Operators who built for the EO are overspending.

AI workers are unfortunately slowed down by law. At least in some domains.

The agent-handoff failure mode Air Canada paid $650 to document publicly.

The EHR vendors will eat every health-tech startup that the IPO window validates.

OpenAI Operator is the demo of what every travel and healthcare booking flow needs in 18 months.

The medical-tourism market is a denial-arbitrage market.

The retraining-cycle question your AI vendor cannot answer, and what that tells you.

Stargate is industrial policy. AI capex moved up a floor.

The EHR bundling clock starts when the wedge works.

Itinerary rebooking is the right shape of agentic travel. Expedia finally agrees in its 10-K.

Long-stay travelers are an unbuilt platform tier.

AI radiology is real. AI-in-radiology-as-product is mostly not. The FDA data explains the gap.

The Canadian digital health adoption gap is wider in rural provinces. The policy doesn't know it yet.

Amodei's compressed century stops at deployment.

The behavioral-health expansion of 2024 was the right size.

Anthropic open-sourced the plumbing. Your roadmap just got shorter.

The r/medicine thread got deleted. Physician anger has a citation now.

The FDA just shifted from product approval to process approval. Your AI-cleared moat got drained.

Sick care doesn't become healthcare without a longitudinal data holder.

TechBio ate the digital health round.

Physician burnout is an org-design problem. The Canadian survey data makes the case.

The agent stack did not collapse. The wrong prediction collapsed. Salesforce has the receipt.

Spirit Airlines filed Chapter 11. The ULCC model died on slide 17.

The next travel category is opacity-as-a-service.

The OTA take rate is going up. The OTA existential 10-K is the confirmation.

The Trump election reset the US AI regulatory calendar. Canadian operators should not breathe easy.

When the model is free, the EHR is the moat.

Healthcare-AI procurement is its own skill. The Texas AG settlement proved why.

The Techno-Optimist Manifesto is the document that made every operator choose a side.

DAX Copilot is a CFO product.

Culture is downstream of structure. Southwest's Elliott settlement is the evidence.

The agent layer landed last quarter. The operator layer didn't.

The model card no one reads is now the governance document everyone will require.

Two travel companies are quietly shipping agentic features. One will call it existential.

AI's capital gravity is pulling investment away from every adjacent tech sector.

The wearables stack is now upstream of biology.

The ULCC model was always structurally broken. Spirit is just the first to file the paperwork.

Newsom vetoed SB 1047. California AI regulation will return and it will look different when it does.

Founder Mode, Chesky version. Airbnb is the receipt.

DOT's Alaska-Hawaiian conditions were the merger's permission slip.

Zitron called it 'subprime AI'. File the receipt.

AI slop is in your procurement pipeline. Audit before you debate.

The Fed's 50bp cut changed the cost of capital for AI infrastructure. Here is what that means for your build-vs-buy math.

Even the AGI bulls are quietly long adoption risk.

The post-Stack Overflow developer exists.

The premium-leisure thesis was the only good rebound.

Intelligence got cheaper. Judgment didn't.

OpenAI o1 introduced slow thinking. The operator question is where slow thinking earns its 4x premium.

The Intelligence Age is the next round's pitch.

The agent runtime will be the operating system, not the model alone.

The cost-per-token graph is not the cost-per-task graph. The capex numbers prove it.

Marriott stopped publishing the chart. The redemption costs went up anyway.

Founder Mode is not a management style. It is a reaction to AI making middle management structurally visible.

Microsoft leased a nuclear reactor. The grid became the new chip.

American picked the fight with the agencies. The agencies kept the routes.

Reddit became the family-doctor referral system Ontario doesn't have.

The Canadian primary care wait-time data worsened through Q3 2024. The AI-scribe announcement didn't help.

The health data broker layer is now regulated. That changes the pitch.

Human-in-the-loop is the only AI promise that Klarna had to honor.

AI triage in the ED keeps not landing. The deployment gap is the reason.

SkyMiles devalued and the DOT showed up. Loyalty is a regulated product now.

Goldman published the bear case. Every AI deck answers to Covello now.

Founder Mode is a permission slip. Manager Mode is a default.

Booking grew on Europe. Expedia stalled on America. The cohort split.

Ambient scribes were never going to be a product category.

The mall is dead. Long live the ... airport?

The pediatric-to-adult care handoff is the worst-handled transition in US medicine.

The first wave of agent failures will look like infrastructure failures.

Copilot crossed 100M. Your TMC just became substitutable.

The post-search internet, briefly.

Aschenbrenner wrote a forecast. The market read a budget.

Amazon is doing to healthcare access what Booking did to travel. Here is how it ends.

Three OTAs shipped concierge AI. All three failed the same way.

On the morning routine I stopped having.

What 'Claude for Education' tells us about Anthropic's roadmap.

Canada legislated in 2024 what the US did in 2016. Here is what that decade of lag costs.

Colorado passed the first comprehensive US state AI law. Operators in travel and health need to read it.

Why the metasearch consolidation is bad for everyone except Booking.com.

Alberta restructured its health system while talking about AI. The restructuring is the story.

The AI-in-corporate-travel category is the second-most underbuilt.

On 'Epic-as-a-monopoly' framing.

On Toronto winters, briefly.

The drug commoditizes. The data doesn't.

The 'rich agent / poor agent' divide is coming.

AI in airline operations: where the unsexy money is.

The NDC migration is six years late and still wrong.

Why the dental-vision-hearing exclusion will outlive every Medicare reform.

The end-of-year travel column the trade press won't publish.

The 'we use [foundation model X] under the hood' admission.

Health data became travel-insurance data that quarter.

The city became a booking layer that spring.

Healthcare data doesn't move because nobody owns the pipes.

Why I won't fly Spirit again.

Three reasons the 'health-data-as-an-asset' framing rings hollow.

Revenue management is now an inputs problem.

The Sunday-night business-traveler segment is dead. Long live the Tuesday-Thursday segment.

On the medical-school admissions algorithm reform.

What the rental-car return process should look like.

The 'long-context window' was always a transition primitive.

The clinical-decision-support liability question.

The agent is not the user. Stop building UIs that pretend it is.

Why the 'doctor on demand' branding never quite worked.

The post-app stack, sketched.

Stop benchmarking on benchmarks the lab made.

The IATA new-distribution-capability adoption stat, in context.

The patient portal is a marketing artifact.

The cottage was already the office.

The long tail is what an agent does that an agent can't.

American Airlines thought it was the dictator. The NDC revolt proved it is a tenant.

Why the 'GLP-1 supply' story is undercovered.

The synthetic-data debate is a distraction.

Why the 'AI killed the search engine' framing is premature.

Ontario's primary care shortage is not a supply problem. It is a routing problem TJ already solved once.

The chatbot was an employee. Air Canada paid $650 for that ruling.

On the 'death of the travel agent' framing.

The single-payer debate is over. The single-payer math hasn't changed.

The reasoning model wars are about evaluation, not capability.

The single industry that's invisible to current AI tooling.

The prior-authorization problem is solvable with current technology.

Specs are the new prompt.

2.5M Ontarians lost their family doctor. Shoppers is filling the gap.

The agent-to-agent commerce question.

AI for medical billing is a labor-market story.

AI scribes and the documentation-burden question.

I Have Always Been Here

A late new year's note about finally writing this stuff down.

Booking became underwriting last winter.

Why the 'subscription airfare' experiments keep failing.

What the biotech foundation models will look like.

AI for pharmacy operations is undersold.

AI-driven 'patient journey' tools mostly aren't.

Neo-nomads: Between 'Anyware' and 'Anyplace'

A 2007 master's thesis. Full text, figures, bibliography, and PDF.